Ukraine weighs deal: Keep NATO path, sacrifice land to Russia

In light of Ukraine's reassessment of its wartime goals, the application of the West German model is increasingly discussed. This approach involves NATO admission for those parts of Ukraine over which Kyiv exercises effective control, reports the "Financial Times" on Saturday.

According to the "FT," both Western diplomats and increasingly Ukrainian officials conclude that significant security guarantees could lay the foundation for a negotiated settlement whereby Russia retains de facto, but not de jure, control over currently occupied territories of Ukraine.

The newspaper notes that neither Kyiv nor its supporters propose recognizing Russian sovereignty over one-fifth of Ukraine's territory, as this move would encourage Kremlin aggression and seriously undermine the international legal order. There is an expectation that these lands should be recovered through diplomacy. This issue remains sensitive for Ukrainians publicly, but according to a quoted Western diplomat, giving up the territories to gain NATO membership might be their only choice.

There is ongoing discussion about the nature and timing of the security guarantees that Ukraine will need to support the agreement. In Washington, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated his stance on accelerated NATO membership. However, the "FT" notes the problem that the US opposes going beyond the alliance's agreed position that "Ukraine's future is in NATO," with accession on an "irreversible path" and that it will be invited to join "when allies agree, and conditions are met."

The US fears that offering defense guarantees under Article 5 of the Washington Treaty before the war ends would draw the US and NATO into conflict.

However, some of Ukraine's allies argue that this doesn't have to be the case. The "FT" cites opinions including those of Jens Stoltenberg, who recently ended his term as NATO Secretary General. In an interview with the newspaper, he pointed out that American security guarantees for Japan do not cover the Kuril Islands, four of which, occupied by the Soviet Union in 1945, are claimed by Japan. He also mentioned the example of Germany, which was admitted to NATO in 1955, even though it was divided, and only its western part was covered by the alliance's security guarantees.

"Where there is a will, there are ways to find a solution. But a line is needed to define where Article 5 applies, and Ukraine must control all territory up to that border," said Stoltenberg.

The "FT" notes that the West German model for Ukraine has been discussed in foreign policy circles for over 18 months. Arguments for it have been presented by figures such as Dan Fried, former US Assistant Secretary of State for Europe; Kurt Volker, former US ambassador to NATO and special envoy to Ukraine; Stoltenberg's predecessor Anders Fogh Rasmussen; political scientist Ivan Krastev; and recently by Czech President Petr Pavel.

The newspaper also cites American Cold War historian Mary Sarotte's opinion in "Foreign Affairs," arguing that the conditions for NATO membership can be tailored to individual circumstances. She suggests that Ukraine should define a defensible border, agree not to permanently deploy troops or nuclear weapons unless threatened by attack, and renounce force beyond that border except in self-defense. NATO membership under these terms would be presented to Moscow as a fait accompli.

She argues that the West German model "would be far better for Ukraine and the alliance than further postponing membership until Putin abandons his ambitions in Ukraine or until Russia makes a military breakthrough. This path would bring Ukraine closer to lasting security, freedom, and prosperity in the face of Russian isolation — in other words, to victory."