Ukraine's demographic crisis: Who will rebuild the nation?

Russian aggression in Ukraine has exacerbated the nation's already critical demographic situation. In 1990, the country regained its independence with 52 million citizens, a number that has since declined. The reasons include longstanding negative natural population growth and extensive labor migration. Ukraine even ranked among the top countries with the fastest population decline, according to a UN report.

On the eve of the full-scale war, Ukraine's population had dropped to 42 million, and by August 2023, it was down to 36.3 million. Of these, only 31.5 million Ukrainians lived in government-controlled areas, while the rest resided in Russian-occupied territories. According to research by the Ukrainian Institute of the Future, approximately 29 million people currently live in Ukraine. This significant decline is largely due to the mass migration of Ukrainians fleeing the war, which has compounded earlier labor migration patterns.

Equally dramatic, and perhaps more detrimental to population growth, is the significant change in the gender and age structure of society. An alarming 17 million Ukrainians are not economically active, out of which 8 million are retirees. Less than 5 million are children under 15. The small number of young people reaching working age poses a significant challenge for Ukraine. Over the next five to seven years, there will be a workforce shortage, and retirees will outnumber workers.

The number of young men of reproductive age has also dropped significantly, a trend worsened by the war. Before 2022, the average life expectancy for men was 65 years. By 2024, this average had fallen to just 57 years, about 17 years shorter than for women.

Various estimates suggest that about 8 million people have left Ukraine due to the war, most of whom are young women of reproductive and working age. Astonishingly, 83% of them have higher education or are currently studying. One-third of the refugees are children. Ukrainian sociologists indicate that the longer the war continues, the less likely these families are to return.

This hesitance is understandable. The ongoing war, the destruction within the country, economic instability, and numerous challenges facing returnees effectively discourage a return to Ukraine. Over the past three years of war, many Ukrainians have managed to settle abroad.

In the last year before the full-scale war, Ukraine's fertility rate was 1.3 children per woman of childbearing age. In 2023, it dropped to 0.9, and last year it was just 0.7. In 2023, only 187,000 children were born in Ukraine, and in 2024, only 161,000 were born. Meanwhile, 496,200 Ukrainians died in 2023, followed by 495,000 in 2024.

This significant drop in fertility is primarily influenced by military actions and uncertainty about the future. Around 8 million Ukrainians remain internally displaced, often living in temporary accommodations like communal apartments or dormitories.

When people have lost their properties, jobs, and a sense of future stability, having children becomes less of a priority. Oleh Gladun, Deputy Director for Research at the Mykhailo Ptukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies, mentioned in an interview with Channel 24 that financial incentives alone won't significantly boost the birth rate.

He stated that to increase the birth rate in Ukraine, decent living conditions are necessary, which is challenging during wartime. According to the Institute's research, a robust labor market and adequate wage levels are the main factors influencing decisions about having children. Meanwhile, the government implemented the Demographic Development Strategy of Ukraine program only in September last year, aiming for improvement through 2040.

However, this initiative primarily analyzes the current situation and outlines a roadmap for action to improve demographics. So far, no legislative steps have followed. This year, the Ministry of Social Policy plans to "develop practical steps toward achieving Ukraine's demographic balance."

The dire state of Ukrainian demographics directly impacts the mobilization capabilities of the Armed Forces. For this reason, President Volodymyr Zelensky was reluctant for a long time to lower the conscription age from 27 to 25, aiming to preserve young men for the future of Ukraine. However, the challenging situation at the front forced Kyiv to expand the mobilization effort.

Formally, Ukraine can mobilize about 5 million people. Still, given the need to maintain demographic stability, Kyiv can realistically mobilize a maximum of 2–2.5 million people, of whom 1.05 million have already been drafted. An opportunity to improve the situation would be to increase conscription in Ukraine and bring back draft-age men who left the country after the war's outbreak. Of nearly 700,000 who crossed the western border, around 200,000 meet the requirements of the new mobilization law.

In the long term, a reluctance to return after the end of hostilities may pose a problem for Ukraine. Research conducted by the Institute for Demography and Social Studies shows that only about 40% of respondents plan to return to Ukraine. Each year sees a significant decline in declarations to return.

In March of last year, the UN estimated that 65% of refugees planned to return. Shortly after the full-scale war outbreak, this figure was as high as 84%. The longer the conflict lasts, the fewer will be willing to return. Oleh Gladun believes that it would be an achievement if half of the emigrants returned. In this situation, the question of who will rebuild the country remains open.