Ukraine's internal issues could hinder war efforts, expert warns
During Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's visit to Warsaw, remarks were made about the strong state of the national defense industry and its growing capacity to meet emerging needs. However, a military analyst with 37 years of experience in the British Army identified several significant gaps that could threaten the war's success.
Glen Grant, a military analyst and defense expert with 37 years of experience in the British Army, provided a candid assessment of the challenges Ukraine faces in the conflict with Russia during an interview with Defence Blog. Grant, who was the first advisor to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense at the beginning of the war in 2014, shared insights into governance issues and defense gaps obstructing the country's path to victory.
Grant pointed to complacency and poor management at various government levels as the most urgent challenges for Ukraine. "The biggest challenge is the failure of the government to take the war seriously on all levels," Grant stated. "There is too much smug complacency and PR instead of taking hard actions to remove the weak and unskilled and Russian-leaning individuals in many areas of public life, replacing them not with friends but with more capable people, whatever their political allegiance."
This criticism also extended to military leadership, where Grant emphasized the urgent need to prioritize leadership and management to increase Ukraine's chances of success on the battlefield.
Ukraine's problems — solving them is a difficult and long-term process
In the area of defense and the defense industry, Grant pointed out gaps in the equipment and training of frontline units. "There is still no coherence or understanding about the need to maintain a high level of basics like mortars, night sights, cars, and drones. There should not be a need for society to pick up the pieces for poor logistic systems." It is noteworthy that many military units still largely rely on volunteer collections for needed supplies.
Grant also described the divided Ukrainian defense industry, noting that private companies are technologically advanced but underfunded and lack clear long-term planning relationships with the government. Meanwhile, government-funded entities, though partially reformed, still do not meet the country's defense needs.
It is worth noting that many units still rely on volunteer support because the Ukrainian state is unable to provide what is needed. There are also cases of faulty equipment deliveries, as demonstrated by 100,000 mortar shells.
Ukraine's capabilities — enormous potential
When asked whether Ukraine has the ability to defeat Russia, Grant responded emphatically: "Yes," but his optimism was tempered by a warning of the need for greater responsibility and strategic action.
Grant emphasized that if international support were to cease, Ukraine would face a critical turning point. "Ukrainian society would double down and start to get serious about corruption and inefficiency, forcing the government to stop living on dreams and hype and make proper decisions. Unless there is an election to bring in people who want to win and govern honestly and not just make and steal money, this may not be a totally peaceful change."
Grant's assessment underscores the need for Ukraine to confront its internal challenges, strengthen its defence capabilities, and promote effective leadership to ensure resilience against ongoing aggression. His insights serve as a clear call to action for Ukrainian leaders and society as the country seeks to survive and triumph over Russian forces.
Ukrainian innovations — despite problems, there are some "gems"
Ukraine is currently producing thousands of drones intended for frontline use and for conducting attacks deep inside Russia. Some, like Rubaka or Bóbr, are based on model parts purchased from around the world or on modified light aircraft or Tu-141 Strizh drones.
Additionally, more advanced drones with "Palyanytsia" turbojet engines are being developed, conceptually closer to cruise missiles, and Ukrainians have managed to start the production of ballistic missiles. There are new missiles, such as Grom-2, or older ones, like Tochka-U, ranging from 75 miles to 310 miles.
Another notable system is the 2S22 Bogdana howitzer, the mass production of which began in April 2024, with a monthly production rate of 20 units. It is a simple system, featuring a 155 mm caliber gun with a 52-caliber long barrel and a semi-automatic loading system mounted on a truck with an armored cabin.
This results in a straightforward system with a rate of fire up to 6 rounds per minute and a range of up to 19 miles for the simplest DM121 type shells, which still provides an advantage over Russian 122 mm and 152 mm artillery, typically limited to around 16 miles at most. On the other hand, using rocket-assisted shells like M549A1 enables hitting targets even at 37 miles.
Adding the ability to fire in the MRSI (Multiple Rounds Simultaneous Impact) mode, we have a very effective and cost-efficient system that Ukraine needs as much as possible. Ukraine has too few modern pieces of equipment to counterbalance Russia's numerical advantage.
