Ukrainian defensive stronghold faces tough Russian counterattack
The predictions of CIA Deputy Director David Cohen, stating that retaining the captured territories in the Kursk region would be a difficult task for Ukraine, have come true. On Tuesday, September 10, Russian forces launched a counterattack. "Russian marines and airborne troops are trying to cut off Ukrainian soldiers from being able to return to their country," assesses Gen. Waldemar Skrzypczak.
The Russian army reported on September 12 that it had retaken ten villages in the Kursk region, previously occupied by Ukrainians. On Friday, analysts from the American Institute for the Study of War commented that the scope and potential prospects of the Russian army's attacks remain unclear. However, ISW confirms that the Russians have captured territories near Snagost and deployed experienced marine and airborne assault units into battle.
Russian footage shows units of the 51st Airborne Regiment advancing near the village of Snagost. The mechanized attack involves the entire company, approximately 100 soldiers.
"The direction of the attack reveals the intentions of the Russian commanders. By attacking from the west, they clearly want to cut off the possibility for Ukrainian troops to return to Ukraine. It would be an action in their typical style. They want to drag Ukrainian brigades into intense fights and maim them so that they won't return home," comments Gen. Waldemar Skrzypczak, former commander of the Land Forces, for WP.
Kursk operation: Ukrainian soldiers in a difficult position
"If Ukrainians don't retreat now, they may face serious problems. Unfortunately, I believe the Russians have created a 5-6 times force advantage in the region. Something went wrong; maybe there was a satellite data analysis error that allowed the components of the 11th Army Corps to reach the action area. They should have been attacked earlier while on the move," adds Gen. Skrzypczak.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian soldiers carried out an action that surprised or even outraged some Russian military bloggers. Pro-Russian channels on Telegram showed recordings (confirmed by ISW) of Ukrainian armored vehicles crossing the border of the Kursk region at new points: Medvezhye and Novy Put.
"With the help of engineering equipment, the enemy began overcoming minefields and dragon's teeth to bring in tanks and armored fighting vehicles, attempting to distract our units conducting the counteroffensive. The Ukrainian army is trying to create the threat of an attack from behind. The enemy, in groups of 3 to 7 armored vehicles, is conducting a series of attacks," reads the Voblya Kursk channel.
The Russians themselves report that Ukrainian forces have managed to hold a foothold, although they are sustaining losses.
According to military analysts, these forces may encounter Russian troops that previously "began active operations on the left flank of the Ukrainian group in the Kursk region." According to Ukrainian military expert Mykhailo Samus, the involvement of the Russians in the counterattack is in Ukraine's interest because it will force Russian commanders to transfer units from the combat zones within Ukraine.
Objectives of the Kursk offensive
The Ukrainian military offensive in the Kursk region began on August 6. The main goal of this operation was to divert attention and engage Russian resources from other fronts, particularly from the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky still believes that the operation is going according to plan. According to Ukrainian data, they have managed to take control of an area of 488 square miles, capturing about 100 localities.
Polish military experts have repeatedly commented that the Kursk operation is strategically justified, owing to the splitting of Russian forces and spreading their military effort. This could contribute to local successes on other fronts.
Gen. Skrzypczak also emphasized the importance of the flexible Ukrainian approach, which involves transferring actions from one front to another, making it difficult for the Russians to coordinate their defense. The benefits of being able to identify and attack weak points in the Russian front line were also highlighted.
The future of the Kursk operation according to the CIA
According to CIA Deputy Director David Cohen, retaining the captured territories in the Kursk region will be a difficult task for Ukraine. Cohen assessed that Russia does not intend to give up these areas without a fight and an intense counteroffensive can be expected.
Vladimir Putin will also have to face the public's reaction to losses of territory to Ukrainian armed forces. In light of these challenges, NATO has pledged further support for Ukraine, providing them with necessary weapons and equipment to repel Russian aggression.
