Future of Zaporizhzhia plant at the heart of Russia-US talks
In the ongoing negotiations between Russia and the USA, a key topic is the situation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. "It's hard to imagine the plant operating if the area belonged to Russia," emphasizes Wojciech Jakóbik, an energy expert.
On Thursday, Steven Witkoff, a special advisor to President Donald Trump on Middle East affairs, arrived in Moscow. His visit follows recent talks between Americans and Ukrainians in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.
Witkoff has already met with Vladimir Putin in the Russian capital, ahead of a planned phone call between Putin and Donald Trump later on Friday. The focus will be negotiations regarding a ceasefire in Ukraine.
One of the topics discussed during the negotiations is the future of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, currently occupied by Russians, as mentioned by Donald Trump in the Oval Office on Thursday.
"Ukraine stabilized its entire energy system using nuclear reactors, which accounted for one-third of the country's energy production before the invasion. Most importantly, they provided a stable electricity supply, operating consistently regardless of weather conditions. For the same reasons, Poles want to build a nuclear power plant," explains Wojciech Jakóbik.
"This plant, the largest nuclear power station in Europe, was seized by Russian forces on March 4, 2022, and has been under their control since then," Jakóbik recalls, highlighting the significant threats posed by this situation.
Russians attacked the facility, endangering nuclear safety. He notes that those working on-site now do so under duress, indicating that preparations are underway to connect this plant to the Russian grid. "It would be the theft of Europe's largest nuclear power plant by the Russians," he observes.
Key element of international talks
What could happen to the plant under such circumstances? The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant has become a significant point of international negotiations as its future directly impacts Ukraine's ability to rebuild its economy and integrate with Europe.
"Therefore, its future is an important element of the talks. Without it, Ukraine's power system will be weaker. It will be more difficult for them to move west and integrate with Europe. It will be harder for them to earn economically. So this is also an economic issue. But it's also about regulations, standards, and international conventions," he points out.
Russian actions in taking over energy infrastructure are not new. Jakóbik points to similar past actions.
"The Russians violated all security standards by occupying these power plants. They have no right to ownership, and a just resolution of the conflict should include the return of seized facilities, such as hydrocarbon installations in Crimea. In 2014, the Russians similarly took assets of the Ukrainian Naftogaz. With the illegal annexation of Crimea, they seized the company's assets, cutting Ukrainians off from existing and potential gas and energy supplies, and halting the development of Ukraine's shale sector. All of this, of course, violates international law," he notes.
The expert discusses potential solutions for the plant's future, including a "frozen conflict" scenario, similar to situations such as in Transnistria.
"The Russians continue to create a fictional impression that Zaporizhzhia is controlled by some regional forces that are not Russian but rebellious against Ukraine. This opens up possibilities for talks about hybrid solutions, where Zaporizhzhia as a region would still be recognized as part of Ukraine. Still, puppet authorities controlled by Russians would exist there."
"Examples of such frozen conflicts include Transnistria, which also supplies energy to Moldova, though effectively controlled by Russians," he notes.
The return of the power plant to Ukraine would also have to be part of a broader agreement on returning Zaporizhzhia. "It's difficult to imagine the operation of this power plant if the area belonged to Russia," Jakóbik points out.
What if the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant doesn't return to Ukrainian control?
"There would be one less plant available to stabilize the grid. And it's the largest one. However, Ukraine can manage. The silver lining is that the country's economy is approximately a third smaller, so energy demand will also be reduced. Nevertheless, the plant is a symbol. It is also an important topic from the perspective of international law, which does not allow the annexation of another country's territory or assets without consequences," he emphasizes.
