USA and Russia talks in Saudi Arabia offer 'glimmer of hope'

On March 23, the USA and Russia will hold another round of talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, concerning the end of the war in Ukraine, according to Steve Witkoff, a special representative of Donald Trump in the Middle East, as reported by Fox News. The American delegation will include, among others, US National Security Advisor Mike Waltz and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin's advisor, Yuri Ushakov, stated that the Russian delegation will include Grigory Karasin, a former diplomat currently heading the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Federation Council (the upper house of parliament), and Sergey Beseda, an advisor to the head of the Federal Security Service (FSB). According to Ushakov, the talks are expected to take place on Monday, and one of the topics will be ensuring the safe transportation of goods in the Black Sea during the ongoing war in Ukraine.

A meeting between the US delegation and Ukrainian officials is also scheduled for Monday. According to Volodymyr Zelensky, this will be a separate meeting from the planned US-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia.

We asked experts whether the new round of talks might bring both sides closer to a truce. According to Dr. Maciej Milczanowski, after the recent phone call between Trump and Putin, Russia has not budged an inch.

- However, for the first time, there appeared a "glimmer of hope." The Americans changed their tone and signaled that they do not agree to blocking the arming of Ukraine or ending the transfer of intelligence data. This gives hope that the USA has its stance and is not repeating Putin's narrative. It's the first sign of divergence between Washington and Moscow. This gives hope for the future, said Dr. Maciej Milczanowski, a professor at the University of Rzeszow and deputy director of the Institute of Political Science at UR.

And as he reminds us, since Trump's conversation with Putin, Russia and Ukraine continue to attack each other. - Declarations about a possible ceasefire remain only in the verbal realm. In Saudi Arabia, I expect that the Russian delegation will repeat its conditions for ending the war. They include gaining political control over Ukraine, early elections, demilitarization, or integrating four Ukrainian regions into the Russian Federation – enumerates Maciej Milczanowski. In his opinion, if the Kremlin only presented this last condition, it would admit defeat in the negotiations.

- The Americans, who previously supported Ukraine meeting this condition, have noticed that there are additional, almost impossible conditions. And now it all depends on Washington. The White House is starting to understand that without toughening its negotiating stance, it won't achieve anything at all. It's finally sinking in with Trump's advisors and administration – emphasizes the expert.

Milczanowski believes that if the American side "plays hardball" with Russia, it could bring a ceasefire closer.

- Trump thought that if he conceded in everything, he would end the war in 24 hours. But that's not how politics works. And Trump is realizing this, assesses Dr. Maciej Milczanowski.

He points out that Putin, after the talks with Trump, not only showed disregard for America but also contempt for the American president. - An hour later, he attacked Ukraine with ballistic missiles, thereby showing that he does not care about "agreements." The Americans had to see and understand that. And even more symbolic was the Russian leader's tardiness for the telephone conversation and publicly mocking Trump in front of cameras. This must have hurt the American president – notes Milczanowski.

After Tuesday's conversation between US President Donald Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin, Washington reported that Putin rejected a complete ceasefire for 30 days, only agreeing to halt attacks on energy infrastructure. Meanwhile, the Kremlin stated that Putin demanded a complete cessation of military and intelligence assistance to Kyiv, calling it a key condition for beginning a ceasefire. Trump, however, later denied that Putin demanded a complete halt to military aid and intelligence provision to Ukraine during the phone conversation.

According to Jan Piekło, the former ambassador of Poland in Kyiv, there is no expectation of a significant breakthrough next week.

- The Kremlin has practically rejected the 30-day ceasefire proposal, setting its own restrictive conditions. One of them effectively means the liquidation of Ukrainian statehood. On the other hand, I'm hearing that there are attempts in Ukraine to organize elections where hybrid, pro-Russian candidates might run. And later in Kyiv, something akin to the Polish Committee of National Liberation could be formed, which allowed the Soviets to govern Poland after 1945. The question is whether American advisors understand this – said Jan Piekło to WP.

And as he emphasizes, the Kremlin shows disdain for Ukraine by attacking it more intensely after talks between Putin and Trump. - Moreover, Kyiv retaliates by striking within Russia. This leads to conflict escalation, not bringing a ceasefire closer – evaluates Piekło.

And as he recalls, Trump had previously suggested that if Moscow doesn't agree to a mutually negotiated end to the war, such sanctions will be imposed on Russia that it "won't recover."

- It's quite possible that President Zelensky may be optimistic. Let's remember that in Saudi Arabia, there will be working groups meeting to work on what the leaders of both countries tasked them with. A pivotal point might be the fact that Putin mocked Trump after the phone conversation. This could make the Republican leader's commitment to ending the war even stronger. The American president doesn't like such an approach very much – concludes Jan Piekło.